Russian Airspace Closure
Due to obvious developments in international relations Russian airspace is now closed to British aircraft. Should London-based British Airways wish to continue flying to Asia they will need to find alternative paths. Their pre-COVID routes were:
The map below shows the quickest routes along the great circle, using gcmap.com. I have centred it at 35N,70E, which is roughly the halfway point between London and Singapore.
All these routes need to overfly Russia, which is now no longer possible. The quickest route to Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand is over the Caucasus between the Black and Caspian Seas. China (Beijing and Shanghai), Japan and Korea fly over the cold Siberian forests. Meanwhile Hong Kong passengers see the steppe and the fearsome Taklamakan or Gobi deserts.
Bangkok tends to fly via Delhi (although of course it does not land in India) because the aircraft cannot fly over the Himalayas – the mountains are so high that if the cabin depressurises and the Oxygen masks come down the aircraft cannot descend to a safe altitude.
The maps below, again centred at 35N,70E, show two alternative routes. For context I have placed three Russian airports to show the airspace that BA needs to avoid – Vladivostok International Airport (VVO) on the Pacific coast, Makhachkala Uytash Airport (MCX) on the Caspian Sea and 2014 Winter Olympics gateway Sochi International Airport (AER) on the Black Sea.
BA’s first option is to fly north and turn the corner at Alaska and again in the Pacific, heading down to Asia over the world’s largest ocean. This is what used to happen during the Cold War, as James Bond experienced in You Only Live Twice:
‘Kangei! Welcome aboard’, said the pretty kimono-ed and obi-ed stewardess of Japan Air Lines as, a week later, James Bond settled into the comfortable window seat of the four-jet, turbofan Douglas DC 8 at London Airport … The stewardess bowed and handed him a dainty fan, a small hot towel in wicker-basket and a sumptuous menu … Then they were off with 50,000 pounds of thrust in the first leg of the four that would take the good aircraft Yoshino over the North Pole to Tokyo … [Soon] he was admiring the huge stuffed Polar bear at Anchorage, in Alaska.
Back in the present day, flights to Beijing would need to turn again around Seoul to avoid Russia.
For the Alaska route I have plotted aircraft turning the corner at 60N,165W and again at 50N,189E. Two turns are necessary to round the Kamchatka Peninsula and it’s fiery volcanoes.
The second option is to turn the corner somewhere in Turkey and then fly straight on to the final destination. I have plotted aircraft turning the corner at 38N,42E.
Flying the Alaska route, Japanese and Korean airports should be within the capabilities of the aircraft, but there are likely to be significant weight penalties reducing the number of passengers and amount of cargo that BA can accept for flights.
Qatar Airways used to send a wide-body Boeing 777 more than 9,000 miles from Doha to Auckland, reflecting the limit of what is possible. Singapore Airlines sent aircraft on a longer 9,500 mile route to New York but in all-premium configuration, keeping the weight down. BA also have 777s in their fleet. Since I doubt they can get as far as 9,000 miles I have eliminated any route above 9,000 miles as being out of range.
The Alaska route is completely out of the question for south-east Asia. And for China, Korea and Japan the time penalty is three to six hours each way. But fortunately unlike in the old days when the Soviet Union embraced the entire steppe of central Asia, BA should now be able to fly over Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, so turning the corner in Turkey is much more viable than it used to be. This is almost surely what European airlines will do.
In terms of flying time and fuel burn Russian airspace closure simply does not matter for Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand and turns a long flight into a very long one for China, Japan and Korea.
Unfortunately it may not be that easy. Airlines like BA have to pay good money for the right to fly over a country. Knowing that the airlines now have no choice, Iran, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and others might increase their charges.
What do you think? Would you be happy to fly a longer route to go on BA? Let me know:
oliver AT ransonpricing DOT com