Why is Flying To & From Doha so Expensive?
A recent paper from Georgetown University in Qatar asks an important question
A recent policy brief from Georgetown University Qatar* finds that flights to/from Doha are 38.8% more expensive than their equivalents to/from Dubai. It also finds that flights connecting in Doha are 8.1% cheaper than their equivalents through Dubai.
But why might this be the case? The paper offers no suggestions. So I have analysed both markets to figure out what is happening. Read on…
* A Study of Qatar’s Airfare Cost Competitiveness by Dr Alexis Antoniades, 6-Dec-2024
This paper was written with the help of data from OAG Schedules Analyser. Visit oag.com. Thanks OAG!
All three of the major Gulf Co-operation Council airlines (see this article and this article) are built with wider shareholder objectives in mind than conventional profit-making airlines in western economies. The sheikhs in charge have four goals:
1. Support the growth of their countries by opening travel links
2. Create charismatic brand ambassadors that represent their homes across the world
3. Buy political support at home by giving their nationals an airline to be proud of and access to comfy, status-symbol seats like the Qsuite (see article) when they go on business trips or holidays
4. Have the ability to evacuate citizens, capital and certain resources or assets (but, note, probably not expats as the planes may go and not come back…) in the event of a major regional war.
Summary of Georgetown’s analysis
Dr Antoniades takes 100 million airfares between Feb-2023 and Oct-2024. He considers 157 cities served to, from and through Qatar. He is looking at economy class only.
In each case there is one collection for advance purchase, weekend-stay, leisure-type bookings. There is another collection for short-notice, short-stay, business-type bookings.
If that number of 157 cities is intentional, it is a nice easter egg. Qatar Airways’s IATA number which appears as the first three digits of all their tickets is 157. Unfortunately I think it is just a co-incidence, as I found the two cities have 159 destinations in common in data for 2025.
There are one or two gremlins in the paper. London Heathrow is Qatar Airways’ most important destination with 57 flights and 21,001 seats a week between Qatar Airways and their joint venture partner British Airways. But Heathrow is not mentioned in Dr Antoniades’s list of relevant airports.
I think the reason is a simple typo. There is a slot in the United Kingdom part of the table between Edinburgh and London City marked “Lanseria HLA”, which I think should really be “London Heathrow LHR”.
Lanseria HLA is the second airport of Johannesburg in South Africa, a significant Qatar Airways destination that is not mentioned. I assume that OR Tambo Airport is the one intended and that this is another typo.
Bloopers like this appear in everyone’s work, including mine, so I do not hold them against Dr Antoniades but just mention them for completeness.
What fares data is Georgetown using?
I am not sure whether the analysis is based on the fares filed in ATPCO or on screen-scrapes of 100 million fares actually available for sale.
100 million screen-scrapes is tedious even with a robot, but do-able. A back-of-the-envelope suggests that it is plausible that Georgetown could be using screen scrapes.
Assuming 157 cities, return, 91 weeks in the period, 7 days a week, we get
157 x 2 x 91 x 7 = 200,018 data points to and from Doha
157 x 2 x 91 x 7 x 100-ish** = 20.018 million data points through Doha
20.0 million data points for Doha
Another 20.0 million data points for Dubai = 40 million
x2 searches, one for business segment and one for leisure = 80 million = approx. 100 million
** The 100-ish comes from 157 cities each flying to 100-ish other cities via Doha, but not including routes that are too triangular. Nobody would fly from London to New York via Doha for example, although care has to be taken as the London <> Lagos route via the Gulf is significant.
Qatar Airways currently has 270 economy class fares filed for Doha to London alone. Emirates has an enormous 574. This is for all travel days
Assuming 250 or 500 economy class fares per airline per route, 157 cities, return to 100-ish destinations, for both Emirates and Qatar Airways, we get:
250 x 157 x 100 x 2 = 7.85 million < 100 million
or 500 x 157 x 100 x 2 =15,700,000 15.7 million < 100 million
So it looks to me like Georgetown is using screen-scraping data. That must have cost airlines a fortune in GDS fees. I hear the sound of selling platform providers popping champagne (see article) and the collective groan of e-commerce teams everywhere.
Carrier surcharges
If Georgetown is using ATPCO fares data only, they will have needed to add carrier surcharges (see article) to them. If they used screen-scrapes, carrier surcharges should not have been a problem.
I quickly took a look at Emirates’s and Qatar Airways’s surcharges for return economy class flights from their hubs leaving 12-May-25 and returning 18-May-25. I used ITA matrix pricing in US Dollars and with point of sale as point of origin.
Source: Oliver Ranson’s analysis of economy class fares data from ITA Matrix for May-2025 departures| Routes in sample: DOH/DXB to JFK, LHR, JNB, JED, DEL, SIN & MEL
As the chart above shows, Emirates’s carrier surcharges are roughly equal to Qatar Airways, and even slightly higher on longer flights like New York and Melbourne.
Carrier surcharges do not explain Georgetown’s findings, even if they used ATPCO fares data.
Explanation one: Doha has less capacity for sale
Doha is a much smaller origin and destination than Dubai. According to OAG data for the week of 12-May-2025 to 18-May-2025:
1. There are 4,500 flights to or from Doha
2. There are 8,070 flights to or from Dubai
3. There are 1,155,931 seats to or from Doha in all cabins
4. There are 2,280,505 seats to or from Dubai in all cabins
5. The two hubs have 159 destinations in common
6. 19 destinations are exclusive to Doha
7. 96 destinations are exclusive to Dubai
I have removed flights between the two hubs from these numbers. The cities accessible from the two hubs are summarised in the maps below.
Less capacity will mean higher fares all else equal, thanks to the Law of Demand.
Explanation two: the Doha market is more concentrated
The table below shows market shares for the home carriers, based on the same OAG data that I mentioned above but this time with flights between the two hub cities included.
The table also shows the Hirshman-Herfindahl Index (HHI) of market concentration for each hub, which is calculated by adding up the square’s of each airline’s market share. The higher the number the less competitive the market is.
46 airlines fly to Doha. 86 fly to Dubai. With an HHI of 58.0% vs 44.4% in flights and 67.9% vs 55.6% in seats, no wonder Qatar is a more expensive market.
Explanation three: Doha may have inherently higher willingness to pay
The table below suggests that Qatar is both wealthier than the United Arab Emirates (higher GDP per capita, 2021 US Dollars) and that the wealth is concentrated in the hands of a prosperous middle class (higher GINI coefficient, 2017 for Qatar, 2018 for UAE). These numbers come from the CIA World Fact Book.
Plenty of wealthy people around makes the ideal conditions for international airlines to flourish. There may not be many Qataris or prosperous expats in Qatar as the population of Qatar is 2.5 million vs 10.0 million in the UAE. But the Qataris love to fly longhaul.
As a result I think it is likely that the average travel buyer in Qatar is willing to pay more than the average travel buyer in the UAE.
Conclusion
Economy class flights to and from Qatar are 38.8% more expensive than flights to and from the Dubai. There are seven reasons for this:
1. There are 3,570 (79.3%) more flights a week from Dubai than Doha
2. There are 1,124,574 (97.3%) more seats a week from Dubai than Doha
3. Dubai has 96 exclusive destinations and Doha only has 19
4. 46 airlines fly to and from Doha but 86 fly from Dubai
5. The Qatar market is more concentrated in the hands of Qatar Airways than the Dubai market is in the hands of Emirates and Flydubai
6. The average Qatar resident is wealthier than the average UAE resident by $47.6k (£36.8k)
7. Wealth is more concentrated in Qatar but the Qatari and expat middle class is broad enough to create a thriving market for air travel.
When capacity is higher, as in Dubai, average fares must be lower (reasons 1, 2 and 3). When markets are more competitive, as in Dubai, average fares must be lower (reasons 4 and 5). Where customers are likely to have higher willingness to pay, as in Qatar, average fares must be higher (reasons 6 and 7).
The degree of concentration in Doha vs Dubai does not worry me particularly. The markets for travel in the two hubs seem to be working as they should.
Remarks on the policy suggestion
Dr Alexis Antoniades suggests introducing a stopover programme to encourage transiting passengers to visit for a few nights. It seems like a sensible idea to me.
oliver AT ransonpricing DOT com
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