What technologies are driving the future of long-haul Economy Class?
New materials & designs are ready to enhance pax-ex, but data collected in the cabin will be the most important innovation of all
Economy Class should get a whole lot more love than it does. At reasonable notice a London-based traveller can fly almost anywhere for less than £750 ($1,030). Just over a week’s post-tax wage for the median earner. That is a miracle of technology and economics.
Economy seats can be extremely comfortable. If you had one mounted to be your desk chair it would probably be one of the best desk chairs you ever had.
The challenges of flying Economy come from a high density use of the available space by airlines and the psychological perceptions of that space for passengers.
As large seat backs have been developed to incorporate screens (good), the cabin has become cluttered and stressful (bad).
Ergonomic guidelines were developed in an age before the latest ultra-strong and ultra-light-weight materials. An industry standard for seat-back screens emerged before most travellers started bringing aboard content for their own devices.
It is not yet clear what ergonomics and features most influence how comfortable today’s passenger feels in Economy. But the industry has some ideas.
Today I will be looking at the economics of longhaul Economy Class on twin-aisle aircraft and where emerging technologies might take the industry.
The first section shows how while Economy provides a large amount of capacity, the cabin’s revenue contribution can be limited. Industry best-practicing in configuring a plane’s seat map is to start with all-Economy and only deviate when there is a strong revenue case to do so.
As a result, on longhaul planes with plenty of higher cabin seats Economy’s revenue contribution can be roughly equal to or even less than comfier cabins.
Next, I look at how space per passenger has reduced over the years. Arguably Economy Class as it was in 2010 no longer exists.
Third I comment on recent innovations in the cabin. Finally I highlight the role that data generating seats and galleys will play in the future Economy passenger experience.
How important is Economy to longhaul airlines?
Most travellers fly behind the curtain. On a British Airways Boeing 777-300ER 132 seats (51.6%) are at the back. The same aircraft type as operated by United Airlines has 266 (76.0%) seats in “Coach”.
Even the plushest airlines are economy-heavy. 184 seats (69.7%) of the Singapore Airlines 777-300ER LOPA is Economy. On “five-star” airline Qatar Airways that figure can reach 388 out of 412 (94.2%) on their densest planes.
Even regular comfy class travellers fly in the cheap seats every now and then. British Airways used to offer an “open-doors” lounge access for Gold card holders travelling anywhere on any airline.
The policy was terminated in 2011 thanks to so many Golds, often flying in First and Club World, shuttling around Europe in all-Economy* easyJet.
* I like the idea that every easyJet seat is a First Class seat, as is every seat on Ryanair, London Underground and any bus. But sadly for the sake of this article reality must check-in…
But despite the large number of seats in Economy, it is the comfier seats at the front that drive the largest chunks of revenue for many longhaul airlines.
The chart below shows my estimate of the revenue contribution of each cabin across the worldwide fleet of A380s this summer. I have excluded the A380 owned by Global Airlines. See this article for details of the calculation.
[First Class data is excluded for OZ Asiana]
Across the entire fleet, my model predicts that Economy generates $356 million (£261 million) per week out of $747 million total (47.7%),
On Emirates, which has 53 out of 95 A380 routes, Economy generates $235 million per week (49.8% of the total). On other airlines Economy generates $121 million per week (44.0%).
The range of Economy contribution across each airline’s A380s is wide. On London-based British Airways Economy may only generate around 20.5% of the airline’s revenue on that aircraft type. Across the North Sea, Lufty’s A380s may generate 40.9% of their income from behind the curtain.
Economy on Qantas’s long A380 services to London, Los Angeles and elsewhere comes in at 36.2% because even relatively stingy corporate travel policies often permit Business Class to Australia.
ANA’s “Flying Honu” operate relatively short services from Japan to Hawaii and Economy’s revenue contribution is higher at 59.6%.
Do airlines really ignore Economy Class? They have certainly been busy reducing the available space.
Emirates President Sir Tim Clark reckons airlines are not spending enough time looking at Economy. At this-year’s IATA Conference in Delhi he said, as quoted in The Times:
“Could we make the economy seats a lot more comfortable with more features, functions and products? Yes we could, and I think we have been a bit slow [to do it].
“We did a lot of work in the nineties, reshaping the seat, redesigning the ergonomics, the architecture of the seat, and everything else made them much more comfortable. We were able to take out 50 per cent of their weight and compressed the seat size.
“But after that we stopped. We concentrated on the premium products.”
Emirates with Sir Tim on the leadership team was either the first airline or one of the first airlines to incorporate ten-abreast seating on their Boeing 777s. Now many airlines do it.
Back when Qatar Airways received their first Boeing 777s in 2010 the Economy seats were nine-abreast, which was the industry standard at the time. Sadly for Economy passengers, times have changed
They were 18.4-inches wide with 31-inch pitch and perhaps 29-inches of useable legroom accounting for the thickness of the seat. That gives 533.6-square-inches of useable space.
Today’s Boeing 777s as operated by Qatar Airways, British Airways, Emirates and many others are all ten-abreast. The useable legroom is still roughly 29-inches but the width has reduced from 18.4-inches to around 16.9-inches.
That gives 490.1-square-inches of useable space, a reduction of 8.2%. Seats are designed so that the 95th percentile male can fit in “comfortably enough”. They are also designed so the 5th percentile female will be safely harnessed in a crash.
All or most of the Economy Class space reduction is derived from seat width. This is unfortunate for broad shouldered or overweight travellers.
To make things worse, the aisles are now narrower than they were in 2010 too, so as passengers walk around the cabin they are more likely to bump into others in their seats. This does not just make passengers more uncomfortable, it also slows boarding and reduces turnaround time so airlines can make less use of their aircraft.
The Economy Class which was the industry standard in 2010 and before is no more. What we now call Economy is much less spacious than it used to be.
You could even argue that Economy is a rare example of a successful product that no longer exists.
Recent innovations in the supply chain may disrupt Economy, but I am sceptical about the traction they will get
It is not every day that I get to disagree with Sir Tim Clark. But I do disagree with him today, just a little bit.