The problem with airline breakfasts is nothing to do with taste or quality. The issue is that on an international airline’s network it is impossible to define what time is actually breakfast time without many people disagreeing.
Breakfast is a special meal, often involving eggy things, baconey bits and other delights specific to that time of the day. Some are sweet, like the Qatar Airways pancakes from 2011 pictured above. Your favourite airline revenue economist likes a Craster kipper every now and then.
Apart from a few Full British enthusiasts who like the all-day option on pub menus, breakfast is generally eaten in a short time of the day and only at that time. These things are not typically served at other times of the day, so passengers who are on the wrong time zone for breakfast will find themselves served a meal they do not really want.
No amount of throwing money at the problem can solve it. AI will not work (see article). Nor will machine learning. Not even Modern Airline Retailing (see article). Airlines who try emphasising breakfast will inevitably fail, like BA did with their brunch initiative (“To Fly. To Starve?”, see article).
Breakfast is the airline industry’s three body problem, an issue in Physics that when three stars orbit one another there is no model that always works to explain what is going on.
In the case of airlines the three bodies are not stars, but originating, terminating and transiting passengers.
On longhaul flights there are inevitably some passengers whose body clocks are on the time zone of where the flight leaving from. Others are still on destination time, perhaps because of a short trip.
Some passengers are transiting from flights originating in the east, so they are ready for a meal that is normally served later. And the rest are transiting from flights starting in the west, still sleepy rather than hungry.
This article was written using data from OAG Schedules Analyser. Visit oag.com. Thanks OAG!
Consider Singapore Airlines (see article) as an example. I took all of their flights arriving and departing from Singapore on Wed-14-May-2025, a “normal working day”. It is close enough to be firm and relevant. It is not a public holiday in Singapore.
I assumed that the main meal of a flight is normally served around one hour and 15 minutes after departure. That gives some time for push-back, taxi, take-off and doing things in the galley.
I also assumed that the second meal, if any, is served one hour and 15 minutes before arrival. This gives time for the crew to serve and clear up before the Captain comes on at the top of descent with 40 minutes to go.
I also assumed that there are only two meals on flights that are more than five hours long.
I divided the day into the following slots:
Sleeping: midnight to 7am
Breakfast: 7am to 10am
Elevenses: 10am to 12 noon
Lunch: 12 noon to 2pm
Afternoon: 2pm to 6pm
Dinner: 6pm to 9pm
9pm to midnight: night
The table below shows on the left the appropriate meal time in Singapore when the first meal is served. On the top it shows the appropriate meal time in the destination when the first meal is served.
13.9% of seats are on flights where breakfast is the appropriate meal for both time zones.
23.7% of seats are on flights where breakfast is appropriate for at least one time zone.
When breakfast is an appropriate meal for the time in Singapore, for 72.6% of flights it is also an appropriate meal in the destination.
If Singapore Airlines schedule breakfast according to Singapore time on flights leaving Singapore, assuming a 50-50 split between passengers on outstation time and Singapore time, 72.6% will be served a time-appropriate meal.
In practice, many visitors to Singapore will have gone some way to getting to Singapore time, depending on how long they have stayed. Not bad!
But in the analysis above we are looking at seats. A more relevant representation of capacity might be Available Seat Kilometres (ASK), as shown in the table below. The table below shows the proportion of capacity where breakfast time in Singapore is also breakfast time at the outstation.
On short flights that do not produce many ASK the origin and destination time zones will have much in common. If breakfast is the meal of the moment in one, it will probably be so in the other too.
On longer flights however passengers are traveling across different, perhaps many, time zones. They also pay high fares. Many may not want breakfast and be disappointed when they get it, hence brunch-gate at BA (see article).
The table shows that breakfast may be an appropriate meal for a relatively small number of passengers, even when it is breakfast time in Singapore.
What should airlines do about breakfast
Given that there is no right answer, here is how I think airlines should manage breakfast.
For short flights that do not cross too many time zones during waking hours:
1. Offer breakfast as the main meal on all flights that depart at the breakfast time of day, based on the time zone of departure
2. BUT also offer a full bar service on all flights as arriving from the east and being faced with coffee or orange juice when you are ready to pile into the beers, wines or soft drinks is always disappointing.
For short flights that do not cross too many time zones during sleeping hours:
1. This is a tough one – some passengers may want a dinner service at the start of the flight and others a breakfast service at the end
2. There is no right answer, it is the classic management call – at Qatar Airways when I was there we went for breakfast at the end.
In the lounge:
1. Offer breakfast to a reasonable time, say 11am or 12 noon
2. BUT be sure to create a breakfast menu that also works for lunchtime snacks, like bacon and sausage sandwiches, dim sum or fruit salad – the Virgin Atlantic Clubhouse at London Heathrow and all Cathay Pacific lounges do this well in my experience
3. Offer a full bar service all day.
On long westbound flights operating during waking hours:
1. Full lunch service on every flight and an afternoon or evening appropriate second meal
2. One egg product like an omelette on flights leaving before 10am
3. Full bar service on every flight.
On long westbound flights operating during the hours of darkness:
1. Full lunch-dinner service on every flight
2. Breakfast as the second meal
3. Full bar service.
On long eastbound flights departing during the day:
1. Full lunch-dinner service at the start of the flight
2. Breakfast as the second meal, but ideally with a non-breakfasty choice on the menu too
3. Full bar service.
On long eastbound flights departing during in the evening:
1. Full lunch-dinner service on every flight
2. Breakfast as the second meal
3. Full bar service.
oliver AT ransonpricing DOT com
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